Quick answers
- Are Tokyo condo prices falling in 2026?
- Not sharply: in August 2026 the average used condominium in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba sold for ¥51.3M, only 2.8% below a year ago and still close to record levels.
- Is condo inventory rising in Greater Tokyo?
- Yes. In August 2026 there were 48,235 used condominiums on the market in Greater Tokyo, up 8.2% year on year and the sixth straight monthly increase, while sales fell 10.5% to 3,180.
- Which areas around Tokyo have rising condo prices in 2026?
- In August 2026, price per sqm rose in Chiba (+5.1%), Saitama (+2.0%) and Kanagawa (+2.0%), and in Saitama and Chiba sales rose as well.
We gather data objectively from the latest available sources and share what we find useful.
We hope it helps anyone looking for a home in Japan, or considering a business built around property.
- No sign of a sharp fall. The average used condominium sold for ¥51.3M, only 2.8% below a year ago and still close to record levels.
- Supply is building. Inventory has risen for six straight months, while sales have fallen for five.
- The shift is concentrated in central Tokyo. In the three central wards, sales are down 39% and inventory up 58%.
- Elsewhere is steadier. In Saitama and Chiba, prices and sales are rising together.
Market at a glance
−2.8% year on year
−3.8%, fourth monthly decline
−10.5%, fifth monthly decline
+8.2%, sixth monthly increase
Used condominiums, Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba, August 2026, year-on-year change. Source: REINS.
Since January 2025
Price per sqm has been choppy rather than falling steadily. Inventory bottomed in November and has trended up since, with only a dip in March, while sales peaked in March 2026 and have drifted lower.
Drifted down through most of 2025, bottomed in November, then trended up with only a dip in March — a fresh 20-month high in August.
Seasonal swings throughout, but March 2026 was the high point of the whole 20 months, and August is the low point — a meaningfully weaker second half.
Source: REINS Monthly Market Watch, January 2026 and August 2026 editions (combined for a continuous January 2025–August 2026 series; overlapping months cross-checked and matched exactly). Confirmed at the quarterly level: Q2 2026 was the first quarter with a year-on-year transaction decline in 7 quarters, and the second straight quarterly inventory increase.
Where prices and sales are moving
| Area | Price/sqm, Aug | Year on year | Sales, year on year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo | ¥1,188,500 | −0.8% | −18.7% |
| Kanagawa | ¥600,800 | +2.0% | −4.3% |
| Saitama | ¥443,500 | +2.0% | +5.4% |
| Chiba | ¥416,800 | +5.1% | +0.3% |
In Tokyo, price is flat but sales have fallen sharply, and the change is concentrated in the three central wards. Saitama and Chiba show the most ordinary pattern: price and sales rising together.
Source: REINS Monthly Market Watch, August 2026. Zone-by-zone and area-by-area charts are under “Detailed data” below.
An adjustment, and an opening for buyers
There is no sign of prices collapsing. They are down only slightly from near-record levels, while inventory has risen for six months, so the market has entered an adjustment. The long-term trend has not changed: new supply keeps shrinking, construction costs stay high, and people keep moving to Greater Tokyo. More homes on the market against that background is the start of better conditions for buyers.
One development we are watching: the ruling parties’ tax reform outline for 2026 called for measures against speculative short-term trading of new condominiums, and in August 2026 the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) included measures to curb it in its tax requests for 2027. The scope and timing of any national measure have not been decided.
Part of today’s inventory is stock bought to resell. Once rules are being discussed, holders of that stock have a reasonable motive to sell before they take effect, and with new supply falling over the long run, the extra inventory is unlikely to last. We think the period until then may be a window for buyers: a time to have financing arranged, a shortlist of buildings and an understanding of comparable closed sales.
Over the longer term, we expect the market to separate rather than move as one:
Prices should keep rising, supported by owner-occupiers and international buyers.
Grows slowly or simply holds its value.
Depopulation and infrastructure costs weigh on values.
Source: MLIT, Tax Reform Requests for FY2027 (August 2026). Other sources for the rules under discussion are listed under “Detailed data” below.
Detailed data: price trend, asking prices, rules under discussion, 10-year trends, Tokyo zones, each area and houses
Monthly series kept here in full, updated each month.
Price per sqm, January 2025–August 2026
Choppy throughout — a March 2025 low, a January 2026 high, and no clean trend in between. August's ¥816K is close to where the series started.
Source: REINS Monthly Market Watch, January 2026 and August 2026 editions.
Asking prices and sale prices are moving apart
The two figures cover different properties, so the gap is not an average discount. It does mean that the asking price says little on its own; comparable closed sales matter more.
Rules now under discussion
- National tax policy. The ruling parties’ tax reform outline for 2026 (December 2025) called for measures, including tax measures, against speculative short-term trading of new condominiums. In August 2026, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) included measures to curb it in its tax requests for 2027.
- Why. In Tokyo’s six central wards, 12.2% of new condominiums registered in the first half of 2024 were resold within a year, up from a pre-2023 high of 4.6%.
- Industry and local government. The Real Estate Companies Association of Japan has set limits on purchases and on reselling before handover (November 2025). Chiyoda Ward has asked developers for a five-year resale restriction (July 2025), and in July 2026 an advisory panel in Kobe recommended a tax on empty condominium units.
The scope and timing of any national measure have not been decided.
Sources: MLIT, Tax Reform Requests for FY2027 (August 2026) and survey of new-condominium transactions using registration data (November 2025); Chiyoda City (July 2025); City of Kobe, Committee on Residence and Taxation, report (July 2026).
10-year trends, 2016–2025
Ten straight years of annual increase — up 73% over the decade, with the pace of increase itself accelerating since 2021.
A 2018 peak, a 2021 trough (the COVID-era low), a partial recovery to a smaller 2023 peak, then easing again — new listings have not kept pace with the last decade's price gains.
Source: REINS, "Greater Tokyo Real Estate Market Trends," annual report, 2025 edition (published January 20, 2026). Annual figures are not directly comparable to the monthly figures above.
Tokyo zones, March–August 2026
May’s sharp trough gave way to three straight months of recovery, with August the highest of the five readings.
Two months of recovery reversed sharply in August — the sharpest single-month drop of the six zones.
Up further from March’s already-elevated level — the fastest inventory build of the six zones this stretch, consistent with the price/transaction divergence above.
| Zone | Avg price, Aug | Price, Mar→Aug | Transactions, Aug | Inventory, Mar→Jun |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central 3 Wards | ¥141.75M | +2.5% | 154 | +11.2% |
| South (Jonan) | ¥69.95M | -10.1% | 280 | +5.5% |
| West (Josai) | ¥77.60M | -15.3% | 213 | +10.3% |
| East (Joto) | ¥59.96M | -0.1% | 359 | +7.0% |
| North (Johoku) | ¥60.78M | -2.2% | 259 | +6.3% |
| Tama | ¥38.44M | -4.2% | 297 | -4.7% |
West (Josai) has the steepest price decline of the six over these five months; Tama is the only zone where inventory fell. These are whole-property averages and move with the mix of units sold in a given month, so read them by direction rather than by level.
Source: Diamond Real Estate Institute, monthly compilation of REINS data, reconstructed from the March, May, June, July and August 2026 editions of this series (earlier editions retrieved via the Wayback Machine, since the source page is overwritten each month rather than archived). North (Johoku) transaction counts for April–June were not published in any of the available editions. August figures were cross-checked against REINS’s own official Tama figures, which matched exactly.
Each area, January 2025–August 2026
Climbed to a January 2026 high, then eased — August is the only month in this series where the 23-Ward price sits below its own year-ago level.
The clearest downtrend of any area here — the high came early (March 2025), and August is a fresh 20-month low, well below where the series started.
Its own path: an April 2025 low, then a choppier but clearly rising trend to a fresh 20-month high in August 2026 — the only one of these six areas still making new highs at period-end.
An early March 2025 high, then repeated swings between roughly 320 and 440 — August ends close to where the series began.
Rose to a 20-month high in April 2026, eased since — August is still above where it started in January 2025.
A sharp March 2026 spike, then a pullback — August is only slightly above where the series started.
Same shape as Yokohama/Kawasaki — an April 2026 high, a pullback since, still above its January 2025 starting point.
Same March 2026 spike pattern as the rest of Kanagawa, easing back close to its starting level by August.
Choppy but with a rising floor. January 2026 was the 20-month high; August still sits above where it started in January 2025 (¥423K).
Noisy month to month but with a rising floor into 2026 — March was the 20-month high; August is back near where the series started.
The most volatile area month to month, but with a rising trend line — June 2026 was a 20-month high.
Similar shape to Saitama — a March 2026 high, then back down to roughly its starting level by August.
Source: REINS Monthly Market Watch, area-level closing price and transaction tables, January 2026 and August 2026 editions (combined for a continuous January 2025–August 2026 series). The two editions' overlapping months (Aug '25–Jan '26) were cross-checked and matched exactly. Inventory by prefecture and by sub-area is also published in the REINS Market Watch data edition.
Detached houses are moving the other way
In the same report, detached-house prices have risen for eight straight months and inventory has fallen for seven.
Wherever the condominium line moves, the detached-house line moves the other way — in every one of the three headline metrics.
In Tokyo’s 23 wards, condominium prices fell for the first time in 76 months, while house prices in the same wards rose 4.4%.
Source: REINS Monthly Market Watch, August 2026, detached-house sections. House prices are whole-property prices, compared by direction only.
Houses vs. condominiums, price trend
Condominium price growth cooled steadily from around +13% to a decline; house prices stayed positive in all but two of the same 13 months (September and December 2025).
It’s the clearest case we can point to this month: same wards, same month, and the two housing types are pricing in opposite directions. Tama doesn’t fit that pattern — condominium prices there are up 9.1% and house prices up 5.0%, both rising together, so that looks like plain area demand rather than buyers picking one format over the other. Saitama and the outer Kanagawa areas are similarly mixed. The clean version of this story is really a central Tokyo story, not a Greater Tokyo one.
Source: REINS Monthly Market Watch, August 2026 edition, detached-house sections (same report as the condominium data above). House prices are whole-property closing prices; REINS does not publish a per-sqm figure for houses, so the two series are compared only by direction and rate of change, not by price level.
Frequently Asked Questions
Are Tokyo condo prices falling in 2026?
Not sharply: in August 2026 the average used condominium in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba sold for ¥51.3M, only 2.8% below a year ago and still close to record levels. We read this as an adjustment, with no sign of prices collapsing.
Is condo inventory rising in Greater Tokyo?
Yes. In August 2026 there were 48,235 used condominiums on the market in Greater Tokyo, up 8.2% year on year and the sixth straight monthly increase, while sales fell 10.5% to 3,180.
Which areas around Tokyo have rising condo prices in 2026?
In August 2026, price per sqm rose in Chiba (+5.1%), Saitama (+2.0%) and Kanagawa (+2.0%), and in Saitama and Chiba sales rose as well. In Tokyo, price per sqm was almost flat at −0.8%, but sales fell 18.7%.
Why are asking prices for Tokyo condos so much higher than sale prices?
In August 2026, homes on the market were asking ¥1.19M per sqm on average, while closed transactions averaged ¥0.82M. The two figures cover different properties, so the gap is not an average discount, but it does mean comparable closed sales matter more than the asking price.
Is 2026 a good time to buy a condo in Tokyo?
Our view is that the market has entered an adjustment while the long-term trend is unchanged: new supply keeps shrinking, construction costs stay high and people keep moving to Greater Tokyo. We think the period before rules on speculative resales take effect may be a window for buyers.
Sources
Primary source. Monthly and quarterly Market Watch, closing prices, transactions, aggregate inventory, for both condominiums and detached houses. Data: August 2026 (monthly), Q2 2026 (quarterly cross-check).
Tokyo 6-zone breakdown, compiled monthly from REINS data at a fixed URL. Data: August 2026.
Closing-price data (REINS, Diamond Real Estate Institute) and asking-price data are methodologically distinct and are never presented as equivalent. Figures reflect the most recent publications available at time of writing and may be revised by their publishers. Saitama and Chiba are shown at the prefecture level here; the REINS Market Watch data edition also publishes monthly sub-area figures for both.
General information only, not legal, tax or investment advice.