We gather data objectively from the latest available sources and share what we find useful.
We hope it helps anyone looking for a home in Japan, or considering a business built around property.
New housing now costs more to create: land is dearer, construction costs are higher and new supply is at historic lows. At the same time, people keep moving to Greater Tokyo from the rest of Japan, and rents are rising. Together, these support the value of existing, well-located homes.
Four numbers behind the rise
The 13th consecutive annual increase.
Commercial land rose by approximately 13.8%.
Approximately 43% higher than in 2016.
One of the lowest levels since records began in the 1970s.
Actual sale prices have nearly doubled in ten years
New-build averages can be pulled up by a few expensive tower projects, so completed resales give the clearer picture. In Greater Tokyo, the average pre-owned condominium sold for approximately JPY 829,800 per square metre in 2025.
Price per square metre, pre-owned condominiums, Greater Tokyo. Source: East Japan REINS.
Why new housing costs more to create
Construction-cost indicators over the past decade. A building completed ten or fifteen years ago was created under cost conditions that no longer exist.
Land is harder to acquire and projects take longer, so developers focus on premium sites. Moderately priced new homes in good locations are becoming rare.
This does not make every older building valuable; management, repair reserves, seismic standards and condition still matter. But a well-kept building in a strong location is no longer simply the cheaper alternative to a new one. It may offer a location and scale that new development can no longer match at a similar price.
Land is doing more of the work
A condominium owner holds a share of the land beneath the building. That is why two buildings of similar age can perform very differently: station access, several railway lines and established demand are part of the asset.
Residential land, year-on-year change. Commercial land in the 23 wards: +13.8%. Source: MLIT, 2026 Official Land Price Publication.
People keep moving to Greater Tokyo
Japan’s population is shrinking, but not evenly. Jobs, universities, head offices and international communities are concentrated in the capital, and people move towards them. In Japan this pull of a large city on its surrounding regions is often called the straw effect.
more people moved into Greater Tokyo than left it in 2025
in a row of net inflow of Japanese residents into Greater Tokyo
prefectures lost more residents to other areas than they gained
The inflow is young. Among Japanese residents, the largest net gain to Greater Tokyo is people aged 20 to 24, and every age group from 10 to 29 has shown a net inflow every year since records by age began in 2010. Greater Tokyo gained residents from every other prefecture in Japan. Tokyo itself reached approximately 14.08 million people on 1 January 2026, and its foreign population rose 8.66% to 783,701.
Official projections expect the concentration to continue. By 2050, Tokyo is projected to be the only prefecture with more people than in 2020, and Tokyo and its neighbouring prefectures are projected to hold a growing share of the nation:
Share of Japan’s population in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba. Sources: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Internal Migration Report 2025; National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Regional Population Projections (2023); Tokyo Metropolitan Government.
Rents confirm the demand
Tokyo’s average condominium rent reached approximately JPY 4,544 per square metre in 2025. Contract rents, closer to what tenants actually agree to pay than advertised rents, rose across the region:
Quality-adjusted contract-rent indices, year on year, late 2025. Sources: Tokyo Kantei, At Home Co., Ltd.
A two-speed market
Land prices are rising across Japan on average, but the gap between the large cities and the rest of the country is wide. Average change in residential land prices, 2026:
*Outside the three major metropolitan areas and the four regional cities of Sapporo, Sendai, Hiroshima and Fukuoka. Source: MLIT, 2026 Official Land Price Publication.
The same split appears inside Greater Tokyo. The rise is spreading beyond central Tokyo, but selectively. Pre-owned condominium prices per square metre, second quarter of 2026, year on year:
Quarterly data can be volatile and is not a forecast. Source: East Japan REINS.
Yokohama, Kawasaki, Musashi-Kosugi, Ichikawa, Funabashi, Urayasu, Omiya and Urawa can all fit the pattern, but not every property within them will. The properties that hold their value most reliably tend to share these traits:
- A short walk to a major station
- Direct access to central Tokyo
- More than one source of tenant demand
- Commercial or infrastructure investment nearby
- Sound building management and repair reserves
- A broad resale market
Scarcity is becoming part of the value
Land is higher, construction is more expensive and new supply is limited, while people keep moving to Greater Tokyo and rents are rising. None of this guarantees future appreciation. It does mean that well-located, properly managed homes are becoming harder to reproduce, and for a long-term owner that scarcity is increasingly part of the asset itself.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are property prices in Tokyo rising?
New housing now costs more to create: land is dearer, construction costs are higher and new supply is at historic lows, with about 21,600 new condominiums supplied in Greater Tokyo in fiscal 2025. At the same time, people keep moving to Greater Tokyo from the rest of Japan, and rents are rising. Together, these support the value of existing, well-located homes.
How much have Tokyo condo prices increased in the last ten years?
Actual sale prices have nearly doubled. In Greater Tokyo, the average pre-owned condominium sold for approximately JPY 829,800 per square metre in 2025, against JPY 440–450k around ten years earlier. The 2025 price per sqm rose 7.9%, the 13th consecutive annual increase, according to East Japan REINS.
Are land prices in Tokyo rising faster than the rest of Japan?
Yes. In the 2026 Official Land Price Publication, residential land rose 9.0% in Tokyo's 23 wards and commercial land about 13.8%. Average residential land prices rose 4.5% across Greater Tokyo, against a 2.1% Japan average, 0.6% in regional Japan and −0.3% in Shikoku.
Is Tokyo's population still growing even though Japan's is shrinking?
Yes. In 2025, 123,534 more people moved into Greater Tokyo than left it, the 30th year in a row of net inflow of Japanese residents, and 40 of 47 prefectures lost residents to other areas. Tokyo reached approximately 14.08 million people on 1 January 2026, and Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama and Chiba are projected to rise from 29.3% of Japan's population in 2020 to 33.7% by 2050.
Which areas outside central Tokyo are good for buying property?
The rise is spreading beyond central Tokyo, but selectively. Yokohama, Kawasaki, Musashi-Kosugi, Ichikawa, Funabashi, Urayasu, Omiya and Urawa can fit the pattern, though not every property within them will. Properties that hold value most reliably tend to have a short walk to a major station, direct access to central Tokyo, more than one source of tenant demand, sound management and a broad resale market.
Sources
Pre-owned condominium transaction prices, long-term trends and regional quarterly market data.
Official land-price data and construction-cost indicators.
Greater Tokyo new-condominium prices and supply.
Annual condominium-rent data and long-term rental trends.
Tokyo Kantei — Annual Condominium Rent Trends, 2025
Rental asking-price trends and metropolitan market data.
Tokyo population and foreign-resident data.
Internal migration between prefectures and into Greater Tokyo.
Regional population projections to 2050.
Figures are drawn from published market data available at the time of preparation. Definitions, geographic coverage and reporting periods differ between publishers, and figures may be revised. Quarterly figures may be more volatile than annual data.
General information only, not legal, tax or investment advice.